kristitaylor

Very interesting to read post-2008 meltdown...Greenspan kinda got it wrong Memoirs of Greenspan's economic, financial and political education and time at the Fed followed by his predictions for the future (as of 2007). Clearly conservative, mostly fiscally responsible, but naively believes that government involvement in markets is unnecessary (spectacularly missed the conditions resulting in the financial crisis of 2008-9...in fact he specifically claims that CDSs are a wonderful financial instrument that is not government regulated, but rather monitored by counterparties themselves--the recipe for our current destruction). Some of his predictions/commentary (as I interpret/remember them): China needs to further protect property rights and further democratize 3rd world with natural resources need to protect themselves against the 'Dutch disease' (undiversified economy with natural resource exports driving up the currency, hurting all other industries). Petroleum countries (Russia, Venezuela, in particular) need to watch out. India needs to move further toward free markets away from planned economy (legacy of Nehru lives on), remove bureaucracy hindering free market capitalism Latin American seems mired in populism (or at least a recent resurgence); very detrimental as poor long-term decisions are made. Doesn't look good. The US current account deficit and national debt are growing, but we'll emerge 'okay' with a little pain...but we need to address now before it gets too painful. The world will still use the dollar as foreign exchange reserve of choice, so we'll be fine, and it'll be better than a lot of people predict. He may have addressed how to fix ballooning medicare, but don't think so. Globalization will continue...regulation is difficult and will continue to be less and less effective, so markets should sort everything out We are dependent on petroleum, so let's get it out till it runs out, then move to others. Seems to dislike any means of holding up oil/gas prices to reflect social/environmental cost and wants no interference (prices will eventually go up and force other sources of energy).

2022-11-14 18:09